Responsible Business Intelligence - "Take a Deep Breath"
- jameslawn
- Apr 4
- 2 min read
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is urging countries to "take a deep breath" regarding President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs. Good advice.
The insight and guidance that economists, and other social scientists, can tell us about what might happen as a result of the largest tariff hike by the United States since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930, is mission critical. But no-one really knows exactly how the humans who make up our societies, markets and governments will actually respond, over time, to a significant taxation policy change like this.
The OODA Loop
In the UK Royal Air Force, I was trained to use the "OODA loop" - and sometimes I applied my training rather than making impulsive decisions. As many will already know, the OODA loop, developed by military strategist John Boyd, is a decision-making framework that emphasises rapid and continuous cycling through the stages of Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act to gain an advantage in dynamic and competitive environments:
Observe: Gather information and build a picture of the situation.
Orient: Analyse the situation, assess the data, and understand the context.
Decide: Make a decision based on the analysis, understanding that it may need to be revised as more information becomes available.
Act: Take action based on the decision, and then continue to cycle through the loop, observing the results and making adjustments.
Those of you who are Corporate Reputation Professionals or Enterprise Risk Professionals will recognise these steps as being well-aligned to how you make responsible data-driven decisions in business - based on what choices you have available to you and the risks and opportunities associated with alternative courses of action.
The OODA loop is a continuous process, meaning that each phase feeds into the next, and the cycle is repeated as the situation evolves. It is all about Speed and Adaptability: the key to success with the OODA loop is to cycle through it faster than those you are competing with, allowing you to react quickly to real time risk intelligence and adapt effectively to changing circumstances.
Self Care
When you fly on an airplane, the flight attendant instructs you to “put your oxygen mask on first,” before helping others. This is important because if you run out of oxygen yourself, you can't help anyone else with their oxygen mask.
All Governments must serve their own society, markets and economy first before considering others - it's self care at a national level. As part of this self care, all Governments also need to continually assess whether their actions, and the actions of others, are delivering against their intended outcomes and, if not, course correct accordingly.
Done well, this is Responsible Business Intelligence in action.
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